Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Why Dems Might do better in Midterms than we think.

Why Democrats Could Do Better in November Than Everyone Thinks
By Curtis Gans

It may be that the greatest contribution in Nate Silver’s young life is not the PECOTA system he developed for evaluating baseball players and projecting their future contributions, the accuracy of his 2012 election forecasts or his new ESPN-housed enterprise, but rather his book The Signal and the Noise.
The book is an elegant, intellectually omnivorous, well-researched and disciplined assertion of the need for prediction and for prognostications to be as accurate and useful as possible. He looks at the egregious failures of predictions - not considering the possibility of an air attack on Pearl Harbor because of a belief that any Japanese attack would come via sabotage by U.S. resident Japanese; not seeing the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack using hijacked airplanes to ram buildings - failures due to blind spots in imagination. He also notes that in some fields, notably in predicting major earthquakes, forecasting has not made major advances because all scientific models have so far led nowhere.

But his main thesis, grossly oversimplified, is that when predictions tend to be wrong, it is because those making them do not distinguish between the signal and the noise - between information, data, events that are necessary building blocks toward accurate prognostication and other data, information, events and commentary that may appear relevant to some but essentially lead one astray. This is a good framework for looking at the early predictions for the 2014 election.
READ MORE

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Reminder; 2014 GALA at Carlisle Banquets, 435 Butterfield, Lombard

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HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS YEAR'S GALA:
 
Don't forget we have a NEW VENUE this year!
Carlisle Banquets
 
* Bill Press Keynoting
* All 3 of our incredible CLASS OF '74 County Board members, Jane Spirgel, Mary Eleanor Wall and Elaine Libovicz in attendance (see more history below)
* Shoulder-rubbing with Democratic celebrities  including Lt Governor candidate Paul Vallas, Congressmen Mike Quigley and Bill Foster, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, Senator Mike Frehrichs and many other folks who work hard to represent you
* A special Tribute to Kathryn "Tinker" Harvey including a little surprise
*Presentation of this year's Pioneer and PC of the Year awards
*And much more!!

TICKETS AT THE DOOR ARE $175


Other details below.



Saturday February 22nd, 2014
435 E Butterfield Rd
Lombard IL (MAP)
Vested Member Reception 5:00-6:00
Registration and Cocktails 5:30-6:30 pm
Dinner and Program 6:30-9 pm



Any questions: write to info@dupagedemocrats.com

 

Paid for by the Democratic Party of DuPage County.
A copy of our report(s) filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections and DuPage County Clerk is available (or will be) for purchase from the DuPage County Clerk's office, 421 N. County Farm Road, Wheaton, IL 60187.
This email was sent to dstafford1.800lbdonkey@blogger.com by info@dupagedemocrats.com |  
Democratic Party of DuPage County 630-629-1125 | 1000-7 Rohlwing Rd | Lombard | IL | 60148

Saturday's Gala Held at Carlisle in Lombard. Bill Press Headlines.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS YEAR'S GALA:
 
Don't forget we have a NEW VENUE this year!
Tickets are $175 dollars at the door.
Carlisle Banquets
 
* Bill Press Keynoting
* All 3 of our incredible CLASS OF '74 County Board members, Jane Spirgel, Mary Eleanor Wall and Elaine Libovicz in attendance (see more history below)
* Shoulder-rubbing with Democratic celebrities including Lt Governor candidate Paul Vallas, Congressmen Mike Quigley and Bill Foster, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, Senator Mike Frehrichs and many other folks who work hard to represent you
* A special Tribute to Kathryn "Tinker" Harvey including a little surprise
*Presentation of this year's Pioneer and PC of the Year awards
*And much more!!

Monday, February 17, 2014

Best Answer winners! Early Bird Pricing ends tonight.(really)

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Just one little click right now (until midnight) and you can still get the Early Bird price on a ticket for this weekend's DPDC President's Day Gala with such highlights as:
* Bill Press Keynoting
* All 3 of our incredible CLASS OF '74 County Board members, Jane Spirgel, Mary Eleanor Wall and Elaine Libovicz in attendance (see more history below)
* Shoulder-rubbing with Democratic celebrities  including Lt Governor candidate Paul Vallas, Congressmen Mike Quigley and Bill Foster, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, Senator Mike Frehrichs and many other folks who work hard to represent you
* A special Tribute to Kathryn "Tinker" Harvey including a little surprise
*Presentation of this year's Pioneer and PC of the Year awards
*And much more!!

THE WINNERS OF OUR "BEST ANSWER" contest and entry into the complimentary pre-gala reception at 5 pm are:

Ted Utchen and 
Jackie McGrath. 

Ted's answer: 
 "You see, by attending I will be further carrying out my father's declaration that he delivered to me when I came home from school on April 12, 1945 and found him crying in front of that big brown box  called  a radio.  He told me, "Teddy, President Franklin Roosevelt has just died, and I want you to know that after Jesus Christ,  Franklin Roosevelt was the greatest man who ever lived."  May God Bless FDR and the great gift he gave us of Social Security!  And that's why I will be attending the DPDC Gala, yes!  And let us all say, Amen & Awomen."

Jackie's answer:
"I attend the Gala to get a hug from Jesse White! He hugged me at my first Gala in 2009 and I've been coming back ever since!"
                                                                                   
JOIN OUR KEYNOTE SPEAKER, BILL PRESS,  
as he honors our 40 year trajectory of leadership and hope

Lots of cool history you may not know 

 

The 1970's were heady days for the Democratic Party in DuPage County.

Democrats held four seats on the DuPage County Board as well as an occasional township office in the northeast corner of the county. And in 1978, then-President Jimmy Carter spent the night in DuPage, at the home of Elmhurst friend, Rev James Wall.  

 

Post- Watergate three Democrats joined a fourth, Donald Carroll, who had been elected in 1972 (and who defected to the dark side in Addison as you can read below). These three, all women, will be at the Gala this year to celebrate our 40 year trajectory of hope and leadership and we hope you will come to meet these the DuPage County Board class of 1974!  

 

These intrepid souls are Jane Spirgel (who served for 12 years and ran for Secretary of State!), Elaine Libovicz who served one term but has been constantly active in Elmhurst causes and government ever since and Mary Eleanor Wall who has been a guiding force behind a myriad of community projects: services for seniors, charities, land-use planning and women's issues.  

 

After Jane Spirgel left the County Board in 1986, it would be 14 long years before another Democrat, Linda Bourke Hilbert was elected but just for two years. During that time, our DuPage pioneers, people like Tinker Harvey, Jim Walsh, Bob Jeffers, Don and Helen Westlake and many others kept the organization afloat until the electoral map changed.  New, younger residents infiltrated Republican DuPage, we were blessed with an exciting hometown presidential primary and then, candidate, Barack Obama. Democrats were really WAKING UP with new energy following some heartbreakingly close local elections in 2006.  

 

HOPE HAD BEEN KEPT SMOLDERING SINCE 1974 AND, IN 2008, THE FIRE SPARKED AND BEGAN BURNING MORE BRIGHTLY THAN EVER! FORTY YEARS LATER, WE CAN ALL BE PROUD OF BOTH OUR LEGACY AND OUR PERSISTENCE. 

 


Here are some historical articles that you might find interesting and which will illustrate how far we have come together!
Let's celebrate and VOW to keep moving forward. Your attendance at the Gala is your vote of confidence on what has happened since 2008!

1974
DuPage County Board has four Democrats!

1981
DuPage Democrat Bill Redmond retires after 2 decades in the Illinois General Assembly where he served as speaker of the house.

1986
1996
Article titled: "In DuPage, Democrats Find it's Politic to Switch" (Ironic now that our Republican friends are seeing the light and switching to the Blue Team!)


Saturday February 22nd, 2014
435 E Butterfield Rd
Lombard IL (MAP)
Registration and Cocktails 5:30-6:30 pm
Dinner and Program 6:30-9 pm


Want to buy tickets or ad space:

Would you like a 30% discount on your ticket?
Become a member (by Feb 10th)

Are you a Precinct Committee Representative? Please give your membership dollars here



  so we can track it in the PC Membership Challenge for 2014! THANKS

Any questions: write to info@dupagedemocrats.com

 

Paid for by the Democratic Party of DuPage County.
A copy of our report(s) filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections and DuPage County Clerk is available (or will be) for purchase from the DuPage County Clerk's office, 421 N. County Farm Road, Wheaton, IL 60187.
This email was sent to dstafford1.800lbdonkey@blogger.com by info@dupagedemocrats.com |  
Democratic Party of DuPage County 630-629-1125 | 1000-7 Rohlwing Rd | Lombard | IL | 60148

Early Bird Gala Pricing finally comes to an end at Midnight tonight (2-17)

It's always so sad to close the door on something good, but it has to be done. IF YOU REALLY ARE PLANNING ON COMING TO THE GALA on Saturday, this is your last chance to save some money. Tomorrow individual ticket prices will rise $25.

Here is your link to buy them right now!

You can also add your name to an memorial page heralding the work of Tinker Harvey at that same link.

See you Saturday!

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Supporting those who support us. ActBlue VS Koch

Dear DuPage Dems,
A group of Koch allies is sniffing around, trying to cause trouble for ActBlue. They’re posing as a media outlet, attempting to dig up dirt.
We hate to disappoint them, but there’s nothing to find. We’re so transparent that we crash the FEC and IRS systems when we file our huge donor reports.
The Kochs are nervous about the power of a strong grassroots fundraising base countering their massive contributions. Good. Let them waste money digging around.
With your support we’ll keep our heads down and continue building a small-dollar fundraising movement that’s more powerful than the shadowy Koch network.
Can you chip in $10 a month so we can stay ahead of the Kochs?

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Get Registered before its too late!

Every year, I face a chagrined person who really "meant to get registered" or "meant to get their kid registered" and now its election day and it's too late.

Nowadays, we have so many workarounds on assure the franchise that it has very nearly reached a point where you can register on election day (not yet, but someday it will happen, or mail-in voting for all but we are making progress). Here are some of the ways you can make sure you don't miss your chance to vote for the Mach 18 primary candidates.

The DuPage Election Commission has the facilities to REGISTER AND LET A PERSON VOTE ON THE SPOT. This begins next week.

  • First day for grace period registration and voting
    Wednesday, February 19, 2014
    Election Commission

    First day for grace period registration and grace period voting in the office of the election authority or at a location designated for this purpose by the election authority. (begins at the close of registration continues until the 3rd day prior to the election). Do this at the ELECTION COMMISSION up until March 15th. Here is a link to find the whole election calendar. 

Early voting in Illinois starts in just 16 days and you have only 3 more days to register to vote or update your registration. This even applies to 17 year olds who will be 18 by the November 4th Election. Illinois has joined the growing list of states that recognize the important voice of young voters and have taken the steps to expand the electorate to further enrich our democracy.

  • First day for early voting
    Monday, March 03, 2014
    Election Commission

    First day for early voting at the office of the election authority or at a location designated by the election authority for this purpose. (begins 15th day preceding election and extends through the 3rd day prior to an election)
Many thanks to Young Democrats of Illinois for passing on this alert!

Friday, February 14, 2014

Why Proscrastination ISN'T your fault. Deadline extension for Gala tickets

You're receiving this email because of your relationship with Democratic Party of DuPage County. Please confirm your continued interest in receiving email from us.
 
You may unsubscribe if you no longer wish to receive our emails.
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A lot of us are running around today to make sure our sweethearts get some notion that we think about them and care about them. 
NO DOUBT, this is the first thing on your plate today so we have extended the ticket deadline until Monday the 17th. 
HOWEVER, we also wanted to let you know that PROCRASTINATION IS NOT YOUR FAULT and here is a little video Valentine from us explaining why. After you watch it, click the heart  to buy your ticket for the Gala.

Procrastination: Not Your Fault
Procrastination: Not Your Fault


JOIN OUR KEYNOTE SPEAKER, BILL PRESS,  
as he honors our 40 year trajectory of leadership and hope

Lots of cool history you may not know 

 

The 1970's were heady days for the Democratic Party in DuPage County.

Democrats held four seats on the DuPage County Board as well as an occasional township office in the northeast corner of the county. And in 1978, then-President Jimmy Carter spent the night in DuPage, at the home of Elmhurst friend, Rev James Wall.  

 

Post- Watergate three Democrats joined a fourth, Donald Carroll, who had been elected in 1972 (and who defected to the dark side in Addison as you can read below). These three, all women, will be at the Gala this year to celebrate our 40 year trajectory of hope and leadership and we hope you will come to meet these the DuPage County Board class of 1974!  

 

These intrepid souls are Jane Spirgel (who served for 12 years and ran for Secretary of State!), Elaine Libovicz who served one term but has been constantly active in Elmhurst causes and government ever since and Mary Eleanor Wall who has been a guiding force behind a myriad of community projects: services for seniors, charities, land-use planning and women's issues.  

 

After Jane Spirgel left the County Board in 1986, it would be 14 long years before another Democrat, Linda Bourke Hilbert was elected but just for two years. During that time, our DuPage pioneers, people like Tinker Harvey, Jim Walsh, Bob Jeffers, Don and Helen Westlake and many others kept the organization afloat until the electoral map changed.  New, younger residents infiltrated Republican DuPage, we were blessed with an exciting hometown presidential primary and then, candidate, Barack Obama. Democrats were really WAKING UP with new energy following some heartbreakingly close local elections in 2006.  

 

HOPE HAD BEEN KEPT SMOLDERING SINCE 1974 AND, IN 2008, THE FIRE SPARKED AND BEGAN BURNING MORE BRIGHTLY THAN EVER! FORTY YEARS LATER, WE CAN ALL BE PROUD OF BOTH OUR LEGACY AND OUR PERSISTENCE. 

 


Here are some historical articles that you might find interesting and which will illustrate how far we have come together!
Let's celebrate and VOW to keep moving forward. Your attendance at the Gala is your vote of confidence on what has happened since 2008!

1974
DuPage County Board has four Democrats!

1981
DuPage Democrat Bill Redmond retires after 2 decades in the Illinois General Assembly where he served as speaker of the house.

1986
1996
Article titled: "In DuPage, Democrats Find it's Politic to Switch" (Ironic now that our Republican friends are seeing the light and switching to the Blue Team!)


Saturday February 22nd, 2014
435 E Butterfield Rd
Lombard IL (MAP)
Registration and Cocktails 5:30-6:30 pm
Dinner and Program 6:30-9 pm


Want to buy tickets or ad space:

Would you like a 30% discount on your ticket?
Become a member (by Feb 10th)

Are you a Precinct Committee Representative? Please give your membership dollars here



  so we can track it in the PC Membership Challenge for 2014! THANKS

Any questions: write to info@dupagedemocrats.com

 

Paid for by the Democratic Party of DuPage County.
A copy of our report(s) filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections and DuPage County Clerk is available (or will be) for purchase from the DuPage County Clerk's office, 421 N. County Farm Road, Wheaton, IL 60187.
This email was sent to dstafford1.800lbdonkey@blogger.com by info@dupagedemocrats.com |  
Democratic Party of DuPage County 630-629-1125 | 1000-7 Rohlwing Rd | Lombard | IL | 60148